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plan for the period Autumn 1939 - end of 1943 consists of 2289 ships with a total tonnage of 16.8 million GRT. Of these 191 ships with a total tonnage of 1.5 million GRT have been completed up to the 31st December 1941. According to this, the Americans must complete their construction plan to the years 1942/43 with the following tonnage: 2098 ships with a total tonnage of approximately 15.3 million GRT. If one takes it, that of these he can build in 1942, 6.5 million GRT and in 1943, 8.7 million GRT, and adds to this the potential production of England and the Commonwealth, which amounts to 1.6 million GRT, then the enemy production for 1942 equals 8.2 million GRT, and in 1943 about 10.4 million GRT. That would mean again that we would have to sink 700,000 tons a month in 1942 in order to keep even with new construction, everything in excess of this would signify loss to the enemy. We already, however, sink 700,000 a month - that is - Germany, Italy and Japan by means of U-boats, Air Forces, surface craft and mines. Already then, there is a concrete decline in enemy tonnage under all circumstances. Apart from this - their construction figures are given by enemy propaganda as the aim of their building scheme. Our experts doubt whether these figures will be attained and estimate the construction potential of the enemy powers at 5 million GRT in which case the sinking of 4,500,000 tons per month is necessary in order to cancel out these figures. Everything else lessens the tonnage. |
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To be on the safe side, the B.d.U. assumes the highest figures for construction potential to be correct and can only stress once again that it depends on sinking ships as soon as possible, to damage the enemy. Today's sinkings are more effective than those in 1943. |
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The B.d.U. intends to deploy U-boats in American waters for as long as these prove productive. In this connection the effect of the U-boat war will be carefully evaluated that means that the average daily sinking level of every U-boat at sea will be assessed. This level was 209 GRT in January, 378 in February, 409 in March and 412 in April. So far only a slight increase is apparent. We are on the right lines with U-boat operations in American waters. The estimate of the daily potential also shows the cost to the sinking figures produced by the use of Norwegian based U-boats. Also, if one takes it that of the 20 Norwegian based U-boats operating only 10 per month are at sea, these 10 boats would, according to the given monthly potential, sink about 400 GRT per U-boat and sea day and 120,000 GRT per month in the Atlantic - for the most part lacking in Norwegian Operations. At the moment the ratio of time in port to time at sea approximates 60:40, a condition resulting from adequate shipyard capacity in the Western yards. |
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The situation in the American Area will one day change. There are already indications that the Americans are striving to master the great sinking figures. She has built up a considerable air protection force and uses destroyers and patrol craft for coastal defense. All these, though, are without war experience and offer a yet no serious threat. In any case the U-boats with |
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